DIY Weather Forecasting

“Remarkably Stupid”

— Craig McLean, former 
NOAA director of research, describing the closure 
of key weather facilities.

In a perfect world, hurricane warnings are issued.

In this world however, “DOGE” has made massive budget cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS), severely hindering weather modeling, real-time storm tracking and the ability to provide accurate forecasts and emergency preparedness. Weather forecasting isn’t completely going away. It will just be less reliable.

Think of it as AccuWeather light, or demi-flood warning.

As the agency’s ability to predict hurricanes becomes compromised, maybe it’s time we do our own weather forecasting. Here are some handy-dandy forecasting strategies to use while our meteorologist friends are permanently “out of the office”:

Think like a seagull. If you see a bunch of angsty looking seagulls flying around, that’s a bad sign. Consider them your Emergency Alert System.

Wet your pointer finger and hold it up to see which way the wind is blowing. This helps discern the direction of an impending hurricane.

Look up the beach. Look down the beach. Do you see lots of clouds? Are they heading toward you? If so, you can say, “Storm front moving in.”

Another idea might be to consult a psychic. I, myself, like to keep a crystal ball on hand, so that whenever the wind picks up, I can ask, “Will a hurricane be in my future?” This time-tested method of predicting weather events was especially popular during the Dark Ages.

If you have friends who are sailors and happen to be about 150 miles out at sea, call their cellphones and ask if they’re caught in the eye of a Category 5 hurricane. If they don’t pick up, well, that’s your answer.

Now that the agency’s data-gathering weather balloons fly less often due to staff shortages, consider a DIY weather balloon. While a birthday balloon may not measure moisture and upper-level wind used for hurricane prediction or validate forecast accuracy, it does bop around when the wind is blowing.

While our incredible shrinking NWS might make emergency responders less prepared, you can make sure that you’re extra prepared with a packed emergency bag. Be sure to include a battery-operated radio to get less than-up-to-date information. Memorize the evacuation route you may or may not be taking. You may not know exactly when the next hurricane is landing, but you’ll be sure to have your travel toothbrush packed when it does!

From smartphone apps to radio stations and The Weather Channel, NWS data undergirds everywhere we check the weather. “NWS is the single source of weather information that supplies data to stations,” says Bill Evans, chief meteorologist at WLNG. “It’s the only source that issues hurricane watches and warnings.”

The hollowing out of NOAA (the NWS parent agency) goes beyond degrading our weather forecasts.

Having already been underfunded and understaffed, around 20 percent of the NOAA’s workforce has just been purged, hampering their ability to gather data, monitor oceans, the atmosphere, fisheries and marine life.

More cuts to NOAA are on the chopping block. Last month, a leaked White House memo revealed plans to slash NOAA’s overall funding by 27 percent, essentially decimating the agency as we know it. Weather forecasting field offices across the country could face vacancy rates as high as 35 percent. The draft for the Fiscal Year 2026 budget also includes fully eliminating the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ocean monitoring program, whose forecast models for weather, climate, ocean and coastal conditions help us prepare for extreme weather.

As much as I hate our weather service being gutted, there are sectors of the American economy that really can’t rely on Ouija boards to predict the weather: Shipping, aviation, banking, the insurance industry and the military, for starters. Almost every sector of the economy relies on NOAA to navigate risk. NOAA data guides the shipping industry to chart its courses, plan its fuel use and avoid disaster. They help construction crews make decisions about building. The tourism industry uses it to predict tourist flow. Merrill Lynch uses its weather forecasting models for investing in commodities.

If you like to fly small aircrafts to and fro, combined cuts to the Federal Aviation Administration and the NWS, that normally warn pilots of dangerous conditions, might make flying less safe. My advice would be to ground yourself until the next administration takes office. Or fly somewhere else, like Canada.

If you’re a farmer who relies on NOAA’s seasonal precipitation forecasts in order to determine when to plant crops, seasonal climate modeling could be compromised. Maybe do a rain dance to ensure a good crop, as plenty of farmers once did before we had 21st century climate science.

If you’re a commercial fisherman who relies on updated underwater mapping data to locate fish and forecasting models for weather conditions, things could get really exciting. With the National Marine Fisheries Service facing cuts of 30 percent, and the National Ocean Service (NOS) being cut in half, you might need to take a more pin the tail on the donkey approach to finding schools of fish.

While having an accurate surf report may not seem as important as, say, a well-informed State Department, try telling that to a surfer.

“NOAA is ground zero for weather,” says Lars Svanburg of Main Beach Surf Camps. “If you’re sitting in midtown obsessively checking the surf-forecast.com report and planning your sick days around the perfect swell, you really need good data.”

In the merry-go-round cycle of firing and rehiring at NOAA, the NWS workforce alone has dropped to below 4,000 for the first time in modern history. Even as hurricanes are becoming stronger, more frequent and more unpredictable, there have been staff reductions of 20 to 40 percent. The remaining staff are working overtime, and are especially spread thin during extreme weather.

So my suggestion is that if you see a bedraggled meteorologist staggering around with dark circles under their eyes, for goodness sake, buy them a cup of coffee. They’re probably just come off yet another 12 hour shift.

Relying on ourselves to divine upcoming weather conditions could turn out to be a little bit like performing brain surgery on oneself. We’re not actually that good at it.

The only real solution, in fact, is to tell Congressman Nick LaLota that we want the lights to stay on at NOAA. Call his office. Send him an email. Tell him weather is a bipartisan issue out here in hurricane country, and we want him to push back on budget cuts to NOAA. Then remind him that the 2026 midterms will be here before we know it.

The president’s budget proposal for FY26 is not law. It’s just a blueprint. And only Congress has the power to appropriate funds. Since congress will be debating budget spending into the summer, the best time to contact LaLota would be yesterday, but right now also works.