The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, starting on June 1 and continuing through November 30.
NOAA is predicting 14 to 21 named storms, with six to 10 hurricanes, in the Atlantic basin. These predictions are reported by NOAA with 70 percent confidence; the announcement notes the improvements made in prediction technology since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
“If you are looking at category 3 or higher storms, we are looking at three to six — and the average is about three,” said Ross Dickman, the meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service’s Upton office based at Brookhaven National Laboratory.
Additionally, NOAA has announced the 21 names to be used for possible named storms.
“Despite the forecast, it only takes one storm to impact you, and it’s a busy season,” Dickman said.
“With warm Atlantic waters and right conditions, when you do have an above-normal season, statistically, you have more chances of getting an impactful storm across your area,” he added.
Hurricanes draw their energy from warm waters, and the waters off the coast of Africa — where hurricanes often originate from — are warmer this year, said Dr. Stephen Leatherman, known as “Dr. Beach,” from Florida International University.
Additionally, 2022 is a La Niña year, meaning the winds are strong and blowing warm water, allowing for hurricanes, as opposed to an El Niño year, when winds blow weaker, allowing for cooler water temperatures and fewer hurricanes.
“There are no El Niños this year. If we get an El Niño year, that helps suppress hurricanes, because you get these winds in the upper atmosphere that blow from west to east, and the hurricanes move from east to west,” Leatherman said. “So you get these winds coming in a different direction at a higher altitude, and they like shear the top off tropical storms and hurricanes.”
The effects of storms on Long Island are determined by the storm’s angle of approach. If the storm stays well offshore, it would cause dangerous rip currents. If the storm is closer, without making landfall, it can cause storm surge with coastal inundation with high winds and heavy rainfall.
Dickman urges Long Islanders to make a plan in case of a hurricane, including determining whether or not to evacuate, where to evacuate to, whether to have a generator and how to care for pets during a storm.
“If you’re not paying attention to what the forecasts are, you put yourself and your family at risk,” Dickman said. “When we say there is going to be an above-average season, the emphasis should be awareness. Be aware of what potentially could happen and have a plan to react to that.”
According to NOAA, Long Islanders should prepare an evacuation plan with alternate routes and a plan for pets, in addition to having a full tank of gas, food and water and a radio with batteries on hand.
Leatherman said that September is typically the worst month for hurricanes on Long Island.
NOAA has announced it will update the seasonal predictions in August.
Julia Heming on Jun 1, 2022